WHAT'S GOING DOWN: Brumby's Word Goes

Through the hubbub of gossip, plot, counter-plot and elbowing going on yesterday, last night and furiously raging today over replacing the two most senior figures in the Victorian government and other vacancies, one thing has become very clear: John Brumby is in charge.

LET'S ALL PLAY MUSICAL CHAIRS ALTHOUGH THERE'S ONE BLOKE WHO'LL DECIDE
He will ultimately be given a free hand by caucus to make the decisions necessary for him to lead Victoria into the next three years. Many names are flying around for various positions including the emergence of Bob Cameron as Deputy Premier, some say leaping over the top of morally challenged Jacinta Allan as the regional candidate, city slicker Bronwyn Pike (strongly supported by the Jennings), "let them eat cake" Lynne Kosky (supported by the edict of Kim Carr) et al for consideration from the Left. Rob Hulls, the most left-wing and rambunctious person in Labor Unity (some say the whole caucus), is firming though and enjoys the trust of the new boss despite an alleged hammer and sickle tatt on his butt. If the Attorney appoints any more pinkos to the courts, some say, there is every chance they will declare themselves soviets with fluttering red flags out front. (Interestingly someone was trying to tell me the other day that federal Attorney-General Ruddock is doing much the same with the non High Court federal courts, how can that be?)

Maxine Morand - of the same bizzarro faction as Thwaites - is looking like a strong possibility to take his ministerial vacancy if the stupid decision is made to keep alive the faction containing Evil Eric Dearicott(which it will by the sounds of it, tant pis). The argument is that they have a quota and are entitled. She's not a such a bad choice we'll grudgingly concede and has done OK holding down the seat of Mount Waverley which is hardly natural Labor territory. As previously noted, Tony Robinson is a lock for promotion to the ministry in the vacancy created by Bracks, a long overdue and much deserved promotion for the Labor moderate member for Mitcham.

Moderates are expected to take the Cabinet Secretary's position, with many names in the mix including lovable Luke Donnellan, marvellous Michael Crutchfield, terrific Telmo Languiller, tip-top Tony Lupton, fierce Fiona Richardson, ace Adem Somyurek and champion Christine Campbell. The OC believes Telmo in particular is strongly deserving of promotion and yet all seven of those would be good choices. AWU supported Luke and Geelong backed Michael at this stage are the most likely of the secret seven to get the nod.

CAMEL ENTERING EYE OF A NEEDLE?
Someone should tell the press that just as the bible tells us that it will be easier for a camel to enter the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of heaven that Evan Thornley's chances of being promoted are reasonably similar. He was given the benefit of the doubt by many in caucus who realised on first meeting that he did not have the long forked tongue, pungent odour and scaly skin ascribed to him in this forum of freedom. But yet as we confidently predicted, folk of both major factions are finding the true Evan underneath the expensive although ill-fitting suit.

One Thornley insider who if named would probably end up swimming with the fishes told the OC this morning that ET was in tears quite literally yesterday when the backlash to his stupid Paul Austin Age story became obvious. The OC will soon put up a summary of the online reaction which was utterly feral across the political spectrum. It apparently though was much more polite than the reaction from those within caucus who wondered why he was behaving so indulgently and stupidly. Everyone else has to act in a disciplined way, why not him?

In any event, the timing could not be worse. He was probably not that likely to be promoted anyway but any chance he had was snuffed out by the Paul Austin article. As a result, we have decided to be kind to Paul Austin for seven days starting today and will make no mention of his appearance on Stateline last night which would normally have attracted much mirth.

INSIDE THE JB MIND
The above is all wild speculation of course from multiple sources who are not John Brumby, because we can't see inside the mind of the JB we can't really be sure. If we could though, I reckon we'd see a man flushed with excitement, vindication, hope, a little fear and a sense that he's finally made it. Make no mistake, it was Brumby's strategy of appealing to regional Victoria through the 1990s that got Labor elected in 1999. Many say Bracks was the accidental Premier, perhaps but it was no accident as far as Brumby was concerned. He had a plan, a strategy, he implemented. He had the leadership taken from him - in circumstances he no doubt saw as rather cruel - just when it was about to bear fruit. The right call as it turned out, as Bracks did very well, but Labor's special connection with regional Victoria made the 1999 victory happen and that was all down to Brumby.

Partly as a result of this and also his formidable handling of the Treasury, the new Premier will arrive with so much goodwill, so much support from all his colleagues - of all stripes - who know that he really got to the top job the hard way.

TWO TREASURERS // WE ANALYSE BOTH UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL
And also preying on his mind must be the most important call of all, probably. Who'll be Treasurer? It boils down to two good men. Tim Holding, the most likely. A ruthless, drop-dead smart, border-line savant, brutal numbers-man. He is most commonly described as a "scary mother-f*cker". The OC principally blamed Tim and the Swords (both of them) for the debacle which saw them - in front of my own eyes - vote with the Socialist Left for some time. Tim's as much as a socialist as the OC, possibly even less so, so these incidents can only be regarded as opportunist, vengeful and wrong. And the ALP can so often be a House of Grudges. But he's a talent, no doubt about it and some of his supporters say that there is a "firm understanding" that the young bloke will be Brumby's Treasurer enjoying support not only from the man himself, from the NUW group and even the departing Premier Bracks who believes Holding performs very well as a Minister and very well under pressure. Like his hero President Nixon, Tim Holding believes the strongest steel comes from the hottest fire.

Another strong possibility is upper house leader John Lenders. There's no issue with being the Treasurer from that house. And Lenders is seen as a very safe pair of hands, a nice guy who is very diligent and hard-working. He's a very likeable person who isn't afraid of tough battles as an OC legal eagle reminded me yesterday when denouncing his involvement in eliminating Workcover and tort law rorts prior to becoming Education Minister. Perhaps most tellingly, he's seen as a normal bloke. A family man, traditional values, solid member of the Labor moderate group. While Tim Holding maintains "Enemies Lists", John Lenders is inclined to forgiveness. When the OC was engaged in various battles of left-skewering, and he was Party Secretary, I was often inclined to think he was far too reasonable and too damn nice to the communists I wanted to see skinned alive and repeatedly dipped in bubbling vats of hot oil. A few years on though I could see that he accomplished everything we wanted him to do but just did so in a style that could draw little criticism. His doctrine - whether he knows it or not - seems very much that of President Reagan "There is no limit to what a man might accomplish as long as he doesn't mind who gets the credit."

So it will be very interesting to see which way the new VIC-1 occupant jumps on this. He's got the choice of two formidable candidates, an unusual luxury. Both will do well, for different reasons, although they do have very large shoes to fill...

JOHN CAIN PAIN
And they all know the model they must avoid. He reared his ugly head in the Herald Sun this morning by saying the new Premier didn't have a mandate and various other unpleasantries. Yes, it's statist John Cain, the bitter and twisted fu*k. If it was lawful to urinate on his front lawn, we would drive with great haste to his residence and do so. Sadly this option is not available to us. His ghost should haunt all those in government as they enter this new phase, don't forget him for a second, his big-spending Keynesianism, his stupid pettiness, his absence of vision, his neglect of regional Victoria, his inability to respect his caucus and draw the best from them, his indulgence of the left-wing faction. The sad superannuant is a useful reminder of how very wrong things can go.

Contrary to Cain's assertions, the new Premier will enjoy tremendous goodwill, not just from his Party but from the state. And curiously it's also good news for Ted Baillieu as he'll almost certainly now be given another chance at an election against the new bloke rather than face what once seemed an inevitable challenge from the infinitely better Terry Mulder with a year to go. Lib insiders say this morning they're much more confident about tackling Brumby than Bracks but I suspect the truth is that by reason of Baillieu sticking around, they'll be giving the government a sizable head start in the 2010 election race.

Game on.

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