The conservatives had a stunning result in Gippsland.
In recent times, mainly after Nelson's promises to cut petrol taxes, the OC has been thinking that the good doctor might just have what it takes to survive and even prosper as Liberal leader. "He gets it but he might not get the opportunity" was a fair summary of my thoughts.
Tony Abbott, who decisively delivered his bloc to Nelson in the leadership contest, has said as much saying Nelson's opinion poll performance must improve.
The Herald Sun's Andrew Bolt has been one of very few newspaper writers who has comprehended just how effective Nelson could be and that the multi-millionaire collector of Bill Henson's pics Malcolm Turnbull might have a major problem connecting with "working families."
GOOD NEWS FOR THE DOC // TIME FOR RUDD TO GET REAL
So yesterday's result is certainly good news for the Opposition Leader. And a "wake up call" for the Prime Minister who goes into an election, most likely late next year, most likely a double dissolution, with petrol prices going through the roof and his stated policy of doing absolutely, positively nothing whatsoever about it. It's brave. It's crazy brave. It's Workchoices style crazy with a capital K.
Conceding your wrong about a policy is not a problem if handled well. Look at Peter Beattie the former Queensland Premier. He would trash a failed policy a day and go up in the polls every time he apologised for one of his hospitals killing citizens by neglect. John Howard did it, not as often, but certainly as deftly, making himself the grand master of Australian public life for over a decade. If he had have repealed Workchoices early enough or never adopted it, in the opinion of many respected commentators and pollsters, he most certainly would have won in 2007.
William Bowe of Pollbludger in his usually diplomatic and even-handed way writes:
In opposition, climate change worked for Labor as a symbol of Rudd’s modernity and Howard’s obsolescence. In government, it is becoming increasingly evident that Labor faces a stern political challenge in matching deeds to words against the backdrop of an eerily familiar oil shock.
Rudd understands all this well enough. He's no trendy lefty. He's got zero sentimental attachment to Greens party policies unless they win him votes. He's from Queensland after all and worked for Wayne Goss, hardly the Greenies' friend. So expect to see some significant changes to all policies where the implications are that the cost of energy use for working families will be increased. If they don't change, they'll have a change of government in 2009/10, as certain as night follows day.
HEY BIG SPENDER
The Gippsland story wasn't all good news for the Coalition. With a monster Coalition spend - with insiders telling the OC that the National party spent a number approaching $1.5 million with the Liberals going in hard too spending more than initially budgeted- they wouldn't be wanting too many more by-elections like this.
And it looks like there's another one coming in Mayo, very soon. With half a chance of one being ordered by the court in McEwen and just maybe others coming in Cossie's seat of Higgins, Ruddock's Berowra and Arabist Mark Vaile's Lyne. An outside chance of a vacancy also is the much speculated about Joe Hockey in North Sydney who we hear is reconsidering switching to NSW state politics in light of recent stumbles by the Iemma government.
Game on.
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