IT AINT OVER TIL IT'S OVER: Howard Still In The Hunt Shows Newspoll

Yesterday we said it was far too soon to completely write off Prime Minister Howard. If you look at the left-wing press and the inner-city dwelling, latte-sipping commentariat, they've practically moved Kevvie and Therese into The Lodge and strung pineapples up from telephone poles.

Dare we point to Dennis Shanahan's interpretation and Newspoll's numbers but they not only showed the Coalition up a point but the more detailed numbers today show the underlying political strength Howard has.

As the nation's newspaper points out, he retains the trust of the Australian people in two key areas, economic management and national security.

The data on perception of personality traits of the two leaders shows that Howard is very much still in the game, even if his government's two party preferred support is much lower than he'd want it to be with one hundred days to go.

WHICH OF MR JOHN HOWARD OR MR KEVIN RUDD DO YOU THINK IS MORE CAPABLE OF HANDLING AUSTRALIA’S ECONOMY?

In March, 45% of voters said Howard and 34% said Rudd. In July, 53% said Howard and 28% said Rudd. A pretty big jump in support for the PM there.

WHICH OF MR JOHN HOWARD OR MR KEVIN RUDD DO YOU THINK IS MORE CAPABLE OF HANDLING AUSTRALIA’S NATIONAL SECURITY?

In March, 44% of voters said Howard was better on national security and 36% said Rudd. In July, Howard was back up to 50% and Rudd down to 30%.

These numbers are a key competitive advantage for the Prime Minister and with not much else working represent his only hope for re-election.

Despite the Commonwealth's Whitlamesque grab to control and centralise everything French style from education to water, the economy and the national defence remain the key areas of constitutional and political responsibility for our federal government.

All the other personality perception numbers are pretty even, although Howard is certainly seen as more arrogant than Rudd while obviously experienced with - interestingly - still 67% of respondents saying he cares for people. It is doubtful that Keating had two thirds of Australians saying he was caring and sharing going into his Waterloo in 1996.

SO LABOR'S GOING TO WIN IN A LANDSLIDE, RIGHT? WRONG
While even Andrew Bolt is waving the white flag, the simple fact is that the election will be close fought to the very end.

Look at the pendulum and see if you can identify the sixteen seats that Labor is going to supposedly easily win. Factor in that the Libs might win one or two in Western Australia, and you'll need to find eighteen seats. Included on the first fifteen is Bennelong, the Prime Minister's own seat which he won't lose. Indeed, so confident of that am I that if he does lose, I will change my name to Sophie Mirabella.

For the most part, Rudd's advisers understand the dimension of the challenge in front of them. They can afford no mistakes. They already made a stupid one by committing to such doctrinaire greenhouse gas reduction targets. They continue to reinforce the error by allowing Peter Garrett to boost up the Greens vote by mentioning climate change.

There's not a vote in it, except for Bob Brown. They did very well to distance themselves from previous attempts to pole-axe the Tasmanian forest industry. But the Newspoll numbers show that while the voters might to have an extent stopped listening to Howard, they have long memories too. They know and trust him on the issues that really count.

And while every titan eventually retires or falls, no matter how great they are, underestimating them is always a mistake.

UPDATE: Good News for Little Johnny Item 1

Everyone else is forgetting names, including radio interviewers

Good News for Little Story Item 2

Kevin Rudd has perhaps inadvertently revived the Republic issue which might taste like lemonade in the inner-city but is a big shiny yellow lemon in the outer suburbs.

Game on.